I seem to be having a lot of average days recently.
Fortunately my average is a bit better than it was 12 months ago.
It does make it harder to find things to write in the blog... Today I traded X races and made £Y and didn't have any problems... Doesn't really make for exciting reading...
I thought In Running was supposed to be exciting and dangerous, but I seem to be missing out on all the huge £1000 wins and losses and blown banks that I've read about.
After a slightly bumpy start I've filtered things down to a few boring strategies for taking small steady profits with not too much drama.
Some of the races are quite exciting to watch, and that makes up for the trading itself being mundane.
No more regular trading until a week Monday as I have work in the afternoons tomorrow and most of next week, so that's about it for February.
Thursday, 24 February 2011
Tuesday, 22 February 2011
¿Donde esta el video?
The BF ATR feed wasn't working for the first few races today.
I should have known better but I still tried to trade with the ATR website feed, and as always it was just too slow. I made a few quid on the RUK races, but was a long gap between so I foolishly blew £38 by trading ATR anyway when I should have been doing something useful like playing Guitar Hero!
Managed to get about half of it back by the end of the afternoon, but it was a good (not too expensive) reminder about what I shouldn't be doing :)
The last race was unusual as it ended with the profit spread fairly evenly over 3 horses... I had three possibles to trade from the form analysis, and I expected to settle on just one of them as the race got under way, but the moves timed such that I was able to move from one to the next to the next... then sit back and watch the end of the race with a nice green (and a beer).
A good end to the afternoon, if only it was always that easy...
I should have known better but I still tried to trade with the ATR website feed, and as always it was just too slow. I made a few quid on the RUK races, but was a long gap between so I foolishly blew £38 by trading ATR anyway when I should have been doing something useful like playing Guitar Hero!
Managed to get about half of it back by the end of the afternoon, but it was a good (not too expensive) reminder about what I shouldn't be doing :)
The last race was unusual as it ended with the profit spread fairly evenly over 3 horses... I had three possibles to trade from the form analysis, and I expected to settle on just one of them as the race got under way, but the moves timed such that I was able to move from one to the next to the next... then sit back and watch the end of the race with a nice green (and a beer).
A good end to the afternoon, if only it was always that easy...
Monday, 21 February 2011
Ups and Downs
Has been a strange month, the bot had a bad first week, then a quite good second week, then a very bad week last week (after I increased my stakes) and is currently at about +£1 for the month. Not sure if it had anything to do with the BF problems or the stakes... I guess I need to check the bet history and see if it's anything unexpected or just randomness.
I suppose I should have expected to start a downturn when doing something stupid like increasing stakes :)
The In Running trading on the other hand has been going well all month, with another clean sheet today and a nice return for my bank/stake size.
Even the bad days have ended up a few quid in the green and I've been taking money out the account rather than putting it in.
I've had to skip the last two races today as the BF video feed is currently running about 6 seconds behind which is far too much.
I'm much better at NOT trading when I'm not sure (e.g. when the video feed is to far behind) and this seems to be helping avoid needless losses.
Not sure how much I can increase the stakes for the In Running, but I can probably double them without too much problem. If I can 4x them then I might even be able to make enough to live on.
Trading more days per week would help as well. But at the moment I have a contract, so I guess I can't complain too much, as at least I know I'm going to make a profit from the days I'm working.
I suppose I should have expected to start a downturn when doing something stupid like increasing stakes :)
The In Running trading on the other hand has been going well all month, with another clean sheet today and a nice return for my bank/stake size.
Even the bad days have ended up a few quid in the green and I've been taking money out the account rather than putting it in.
I've had to skip the last two races today as the BF video feed is currently running about 6 seconds behind which is far too much.
I'm much better at NOT trading when I'm not sure (e.g. when the video feed is to far behind) and this seems to be helping avoid needless losses.
Not sure how much I can increase the stakes for the In Running, but I can probably double them without too much problem. If I can 4x them then I might even be able to make enough to live on.
Trading more days per week would help as well. But at the moment I have a contract, so I guess I can't complain too much, as at least I know I'm going to make a profit from the days I'm working.
Saturday, 19 February 2011
Saturday
Missed the first half of the afternoon due to work, and I didn't trade the Gowran Park races due to races overlapping (the one race I did trade there was the only race I lost money on).
The rest of the afternoon was very straight forwards, I wish every day was that easy.
Not sure if Saturdays are always like that, as I don't usually finish work until 6pm on Weekends so don't trade them very often.
Off out now to spend my winnings on beer and chips :)
Here's some Stevie Nicks
The rest of the afternoon was very straight forwards, I wish every day was that easy.
Not sure if Saturdays are always like that, as I don't usually finish work until 6pm on Weekends so don't trade them very often.
Off out now to spend my winnings on beer and chips :)
Here's some Stevie Nicks
Friday, 18 February 2011
In the Red
Late start today due to a problem with my BF account following a withdrawal to PayPal yesterday that for whatever reason got withdrawn twice and put my in running account in to the red.
Not the greatest start to a day's trading to see your account balance come up with a negative balance...
A phone call to BF sorted it out and I was trading again just before I needed to head into town.
Eventually got going properly about 4:30pm...
Currently 20p up with half hour between races and a fridge full of beer...
Could get messy!
Not the greatest start to a day's trading to see your account balance come up with a negative balance...
A phone call to BF sorted it out and I was trading again just before I needed to head into town.
Eventually got going properly about 4:30pm...
Currently 20p up with half hour between races and a fridge full of beer...
Could get messy!
Thursday, 17 February 2011
So Slow
Just couldn't find many nice trades this afternoon, probably only entered about half the races and only made anything on half of those.
Was never in danger of making a loss, but the profits were hard to find. Horses changing silks doesn't help, I missed out on one trade because I couldn't see my horse...
Hope that this evening at Wolves is a bit easier.
[Update] Wolves was no easier...
Was never in danger of making a loss, but the profits were hard to find. Horses changing silks doesn't help, I missed out on one trade because I couldn't see my horse...
Hope that this evening at Wolves is a bit easier.
[Update] Wolves was no easier...
Wednesday, 16 February 2011
Much more betterer
Had a much better afternoon than yesterday, increased the stakes slightly and pulled in just under £30 from the afternoon races.
Decided not to do the evening races for two reasons, first the RUK feed was too delayed and more importantly I've had enough for today and wanted a beer!
I'm starting to see a few recurring patterns, some where it is easy to trade and others where it goes wrong very quickly and not in line with what is happening in the race. Once I've done a few more months I expect I'll be a lot more selective about which races I try to trade.
At the moment I'm still trying things out and a few losses have to be expected in that process.
When I started I found the sprint races difficult and too random, I now find them a lot easier. As long as you haven't chased your entry point there is a fairly big window in the first half of the race where you can get out for a reasonably small loss if your horse isn't running to plan and some nice profits to be made if it is. The key for me seems to be pre race selection of horse and then either trading or not trading depending if it runs as expected.
I'm not looking for a winner, I'm looking for a horse that will shorten in price or a horse with low odds that isn't good enough. I only trade that one horse and only if the horse and market are both moving as they should be. I still take a few losses, but the wins are usually bigger.
My problem at the moment is I quite often cut the winning trades too early, or scratch just before the move I wanted starts (that's quite amusing/annoying) and also the price often goes the wrong way for no apparent reason forcing a scratch only to then go where it should have been going.
I am finding the In Running more interesting than pre race, and I've also started to sometimes make a few quid in the Pre Race market while waiting for the start when I see obvious moves (which I never seemed very good at spotting when I was trying to pre race trade). Maybe it's to do with the timing, i.e. coming into the market the same time as lots of others as the previous race finishes, who knows...
Managed to do an hour at the gym today, and I need to get back in the habit of going every day before I get too unfit!
Decided not to do the evening races for two reasons, first the RUK feed was too delayed and more importantly I've had enough for today and wanted a beer!
I'm starting to see a few recurring patterns, some where it is easy to trade and others where it goes wrong very quickly and not in line with what is happening in the race. Once I've done a few more months I expect I'll be a lot more selective about which races I try to trade.
At the moment I'm still trying things out and a few losses have to be expected in that process.
When I started I found the sprint races difficult and too random, I now find them a lot easier. As long as you haven't chased your entry point there is a fairly big window in the first half of the race where you can get out for a reasonably small loss if your horse isn't running to plan and some nice profits to be made if it is. The key for me seems to be pre race selection of horse and then either trading or not trading depending if it runs as expected.
I'm not looking for a winner, I'm looking for a horse that will shorten in price or a horse with low odds that isn't good enough. I only trade that one horse and only if the horse and market are both moving as they should be. I still take a few losses, but the wins are usually bigger.
My problem at the moment is I quite often cut the winning trades too early, or scratch just before the move I wanted starts (that's quite amusing/annoying) and also the price often goes the wrong way for no apparent reason forcing a scratch only to then go where it should have been going.
I am finding the In Running more interesting than pre race, and I've also started to sometimes make a few quid in the Pre Race market while waiting for the start when I see obvious moves (which I never seemed very good at spotting when I was trying to pre race trade). Maybe it's to do with the timing, i.e. coming into the market the same time as lots of others as the previous race finishes, who knows...
Managed to do an hour at the gym today, and I need to get back in the habit of going every day before I get too unfit!
Tuesday, 15 February 2011
Treacle
Was a slow afternoon, much like running through treacle... Not a huge amount of races and most of them were hard work.
I had a lucky escape when I closed a trade about half a second before the horse fell in one race, and I did end up in profit at the end of the day but my hourly rate was very poor.
Still haven't made enough for the new PC. I don't want to drop my bank down too low so I'm only taking out a percentage of profits each month and I need to withdraw another £700 or so before I can buy it.
I could stick it on a credit card, but that wouldn't give me any incentive to increase my profits quicker. so although I'm pleased with the last six months and with being in profit most weeks, I haven't increased my profits anywhere near enough. Now that I'm making less costly mistakes I think it's time to be a bit more aggressive with my staking.
I hope I can do that without messing up!
I'm not going to set targets as the markets will dictate what is available to me, but I am going to try and use higher stakes/liabilities in trades where I can.
I had a lucky escape when I closed a trade about half a second before the horse fell in one race, and I did end up in profit at the end of the day but my hourly rate was very poor.
Still haven't made enough for the new PC. I don't want to drop my bank down too low so I'm only taking out a percentage of profits each month and I need to withdraw another £700 or so before I can buy it.
I could stick it on a credit card, but that wouldn't give me any incentive to increase my profits quicker. so although I'm pleased with the last six months and with being in profit most weeks, I haven't increased my profits anywhere near enough. Now that I'm making less costly mistakes I think it's time to be a bit more aggressive with my staking.
I hope I can do that without messing up!
I'm not going to set targets as the markets will dictate what is available to me, but I am going to try and use higher stakes/liabilities in trades where I can.
Monday, 14 February 2011
Sleep
The problem with getting up at 5:30am every morning is that (for a non morning person like me) after about a week I just get incredibly tired.
Nothing for it but to go back to bed when I got back in from work this morning, which meant I missed half the races by the time I'd woken up again. But I had a good 2nd half of the afternoon.
I messed up the last race and took a few quid hit because after the false start I switched to a different horse (no idea why I did that, as my original plan on Downhill Skier would have worked to perfection).
Apart from that (and losing the RUK pictures in one race) it was quite a relaxing afternoon and as well as catching up on 4 hours sleep I made a few quid.
I seem to be avoiding problems and anticipating horses/market moves earlier, I guess just a result of watching more races.
Really pleased that I've made a profit every day and had no significant losses for over a week now, but obviously tomorrow is jinxed now I've said that!
I increased my swap file size to 8Gb today and it seems to have helped Guitar Hero run a bit better. I was able to complete Number of the Beast without it lagging.
Nothing for it but to go back to bed when I got back in from work this morning, which meant I missed half the races by the time I'd woken up again. But I had a good 2nd half of the afternoon.
I messed up the last race and took a few quid hit because after the false start I switched to a different horse (no idea why I did that, as my original plan on Downhill Skier would have worked to perfection).
Apart from that (and losing the RUK pictures in one race) it was quite a relaxing afternoon and as well as catching up on 4 hours sleep I made a few quid.
I seem to be avoiding problems and anticipating horses/market moves earlier, I guess just a result of watching more races.
Really pleased that I've made a profit every day and had no significant losses for over a week now, but obviously tomorrow is jinxed now I've said that!
I increased my swap file size to 8Gb today and it seems to have helped Guitar Hero run a bit better. I was able to complete Number of the Beast without it lagging.
Friday, 11 February 2011
Database
Have finally finished coding the data collection routines for the Timeform, Betfair and Racing Post data, so this all gets loaded automatically into the database in the mornings, with price updates every half hour.
There's a few more bits of data I want to add, tipster selections and also distance/going/class information to the form to show how relevant it is to the current race and conditions.
Next step is to work on the presentation so that I get the information shown clearly for each race.
At the moment it just gives a very basic list of races with the ratings and an overall score that I calculate for each runner. Not surprisingly I tend to back the horses with the highest scores and lay the ones with the lowest scores (subject to suitable odds and how the race pans out).
I also use a race timer with colour coded progress bar to help time my trades, but this is currently set and started manually for each race. The next step is to build it into the database application and auto set the timer to the race distance and conditions and then start it on market suspension using the BF API.
Racing Post sent me a nice picture of Kauto Star this week.
There's a few more bits of data I want to add, tipster selections and also distance/going/class information to the form to show how relevant it is to the current race and conditions.
Next step is to work on the presentation so that I get the information shown clearly for each race.
At the moment it just gives a very basic list of races with the ratings and an overall score that I calculate for each runner. Not surprisingly I tend to back the horses with the highest scores and lay the ones with the lowest scores (subject to suitable odds and how the race pans out).
I also use a race timer with colour coded progress bar to help time my trades, but this is currently set and started manually for each race. The next step is to build it into the database application and auto set the timer to the race distance and conditions and then start it on market suspension using the BF API.
Racing Post sent me a nice picture of Kauto Star this week.
Saturday, 5 February 2011
Losses
Being self employed has certain financial similarities to trading... You can never take anything for granted and losses can come out of the blue... I'd got a couple of jobs lined up for this weekend, but because it got windy they were cancelled.
Despite the lack of work I didn't do any trading today, so no losses there, I'm making some changes to my Horse Racing data scraping application and I want to get those finished asap.
The prototype seemed to work quite well, so I'm making it a bit more robust, adding a few extra bits of data and improving the presentation.
I've now hooked into Timeform, Betfair, and the Racing Post for the race cards, form analysis, ratings, real time prices and price trends. The results and in running prices for each horse are also recorded from BF.
This should allow me to do what if analysis on my selection criteria as well as keeping a record of how well the current selection methods are working.
The biggest benefit at the moment is that 90% of the pre race preparation that I was doing by hand is able to be automated, and all I need to do is load up the card a few mins pre race to quickly read the comments on the highlighted horses to verify what the numbers are telling me about what and how I might be able to trade.
Having a day off does have some benefit... I've cracked the Knights of Cydonia on Hard!!!
Finally nailed those pesky triplets to get through the middle section and it was all over...
I look forwards to playing it again on Expert level!
Despite the lack of work I didn't do any trading today, so no losses there, I'm making some changes to my Horse Racing data scraping application and I want to get those finished asap.
The prototype seemed to work quite well, so I'm making it a bit more robust, adding a few extra bits of data and improving the presentation.
I've now hooked into Timeform, Betfair, and the Racing Post for the race cards, form analysis, ratings, real time prices and price trends. The results and in running prices for each horse are also recorded from BF.
This should allow me to do what if analysis on my selection criteria as well as keeping a record of how well the current selection methods are working.
The biggest benefit at the moment is that 90% of the pre race preparation that I was doing by hand is able to be automated, and all I need to do is load up the card a few mins pre race to quickly read the comments on the highlighted horses to verify what the numbers are telling me about what and how I might be able to trade.
Having a day off does have some benefit... I've cracked the Knights of Cydonia on Hard!!!
Finally nailed those pesky triplets to get through the middle section and it was all over...
I look forwards to playing it again on Expert level!
Friday, 4 February 2011
10 Seconds
I had a late start to the afternoon but everything went really well for the first 6 races, I was even finding time to do stuff between races and got a bit too confident...
Then the inevitable combination of distractions and lack of focus left me on the wrong side of a double lay (I'd placed a second as the price moved up and not cancelled the first), at which point the price rapidly headed south taking both the lays and putting me on a big red.
Three days profits gone in 10 seconds flat!
On the plus side my car insurance has only gone up 30% from last year...
Then the inevitable combination of distractions and lack of focus left me on the wrong side of a double lay (I'd placed a second as the price moved up and not cancelled the first), at which point the price rapidly headed south taking both the lays and putting me on a big red.
Three days profits gone in 10 seconds flat!
On the plus side my car insurance has only gone up 30% from last year...
Thursday, 3 February 2011
Das Model
Last 3 days have gone quite well, but the short flat races are only making me a fraction of what I'm making on the jump races.
I am still making a small profit on the sprints, but limiting my liability and not taking risks in a race that lasts about a minute aint easy at the moment... It relies on picking a horse in advance and then trading ONLY if the opportunity I'm looking for arises at the right time (or doing nothing if it doesn't). Even when I get an opportunity I often end up scratching or taking a small green/red if it doesn't go to plan quickly, so it's not making me millions at the moment. The good thing is that I very rarely take a loss and if I do it's usually not too bad, so I guess that's more important than taking chances.
With the jumps I have a few more strategies that I use, some are planned in advance, and some just take advantage of market moves that I think offer value and/or opportunity to nick a few quid based on what I've seen in the markets over the last few months.
My in running bank is now at £157. I haven't needed to top up for a while so I'm using a maximum liability of 25% with a ratchet increase of £5 liability for every £20 in the bank. No more deposits required on the account unless something goes badly wrong.
If I take a loss I won't reduce the staking liability unless I lose half the bank, at which point I'd drop it down to 25% again (but hopefully that won't happen too often).
I might get a couple of hours on the horses tomorrow afternoon from about 2:30pm but that all I can do then until Monday as I have a fun packed weekend of work lined up.
I am still making a small profit on the sprints, but limiting my liability and not taking risks in a race that lasts about a minute aint easy at the moment... It relies on picking a horse in advance and then trading ONLY if the opportunity I'm looking for arises at the right time (or doing nothing if it doesn't). Even when I get an opportunity I often end up scratching or taking a small green/red if it doesn't go to plan quickly, so it's not making me millions at the moment. The good thing is that I very rarely take a loss and if I do it's usually not too bad, so I guess that's more important than taking chances.
With the jumps I have a few more strategies that I use, some are planned in advance, and some just take advantage of market moves that I think offer value and/or opportunity to nick a few quid based on what I've seen in the markets over the last few months.
My in running bank is now at £157. I haven't needed to top up for a while so I'm using a maximum liability of 25% with a ratchet increase of £5 liability for every £20 in the bank. No more deposits required on the account unless something goes badly wrong.
If I take a loss I won't reduce the staking liability unless I lose half the bank, at which point I'd drop it down to 25% again (but hopefully that won't happen too often).
I might get a couple of hours on the horses tomorrow afternoon from about 2:30pm but that all I can do then until Monday as I have a fun packed weekend of work lined up.
Tuesday, 1 February 2011
January
My best January P&L ever!
But that's not difficult, seeing as last year was my first January and I lost £97... This January I made just over £335.
That includes losing a bit on the in play horses, but that's training expenses
My RP screen scraper is running now in it's first test version and this is giving me a quick overview of horses NOT to lay and which ones might be worth backing in the sprints. The next stage is combining BF results to the Postdata to look at price movements in previous races for finding horses that have potential to shorten in running.
A quick look at this and the race card just before the off gives me an idea of what might be available... then it's a case of waiting for the right opportunity to show up, and if it does take advantage of it.
I'm not taking many losses in the first few races now (the last week), but I still find after about 10 green races I can get too confident and trade when I shouldn't, and this is where I can still lose money.
I'm thinking along the lines of not trading more than 10 races before having a 1/2 hour break to see if this helps.
I want to be a bike courier!
But that's not difficult, seeing as last year was my first January and I lost £97... This January I made just over £335.
That includes losing a bit on the in play horses, but that's training expenses
My RP screen scraper is running now in it's first test version and this is giving me a quick overview of horses NOT to lay and which ones might be worth backing in the sprints. The next stage is combining BF results to the Postdata to look at price movements in previous races for finding horses that have potential to shorten in running.
A quick look at this and the race card just before the off gives me an idea of what might be available... then it's a case of waiting for the right opportunity to show up, and if it does take advantage of it.
I'm not taking many losses in the first few races now (the last week), but I still find after about 10 green races I can get too confident and trade when I shouldn't, and this is where I can still lose money.
I'm thinking along the lines of not trading more than 10 races before having a 1/2 hour break to see if this helps.
I want to be a bike courier!
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