I have a contract that runs to June/July 2011, and I've already said I can't do longer than that as I'm moving to Switzerland.
So by next June/July I either need to be making a living from Betfair or I will need to get a job.
I'd much prefer to go mountain biking or skiing every day than go into an office every day, so I have 10 months to start bringing in £2k+ a month.
Monday, 27 September 2010
Friday, 24 September 2010
Football
Started collecting in play football data today.
I manually looked at prices on related markets pre kick off but I didn't find any opportunity for arbing, which has to be expected I guess, so am concentrating on collecting price movements in play for CS and Match Odds markets to see if I can find anything there.
No doubt this has all been done before by many other people, but you never know I might stumble across something.
Rained today, so I guess summer is over, and I'm back to the UK next week, so no more shorts and t-shirt for a while.
profits doing ok again this month, probably won't beat July, but should be a reasonable monthly total by next week.
I manually looked at prices on related markets pre kick off but I didn't find any opportunity for arbing, which has to be expected I guess, so am concentrating on collecting price movements in play for CS and Match Odds markets to see if I can find anything there.
No doubt this has all been done before by many other people, but you never know I might stumble across something.
Rained today, so I guess summer is over, and I'm back to the UK next week, so no more shorts and t-shirt for a while.
profits doing ok again this month, probably won't beat July, but should be a reasonable monthly total by next week.
Thursday, 23 September 2010
Stakes
In 3 months I've taken my bank from £250 to £1200
So the bank has increased almost 400% but my stakes have only gone up 25%
With that sort of return it's very tempting to increasing the stakes quickly. But I'm not sure how high I can take the stakes before I stop making a profit. So I've been increasing slowly.
One of the main things I've learnt over the last 18 months is protect your bank.
At the end of September I'm going to be a bit more aggressive, I'm going to withdraw the original £250 and then double the stakes on all my strategies and see what happens.
I'm also going to be looking at football markets.
I've not had much to do with football markets so far but with the liquidity and range of markets I think there may be some opportunities for my bot.
For the manual trading I'm sticking with the dogs and horses.
I'm also going to give the in play horses a go as it sounds fun. Just small stakes.
Also heard a rumour that The Geeks Toy charting isn't too far away
Back to the UK next week for a couple of months, can't wait for the fantastic winter weather...
Have now made all the arrangements to move to Switzerland next June/July, so looking forwards to that.
So the bank has increased almost 400% but my stakes have only gone up 25%
With that sort of return it's very tempting to increasing the stakes quickly. But I'm not sure how high I can take the stakes before I stop making a profit. So I've been increasing slowly.
One of the main things I've learnt over the last 18 months is protect your bank.
At the end of September I'm going to be a bit more aggressive, I'm going to withdraw the original £250 and then double the stakes on all my strategies and see what happens.
I'm also going to be looking at football markets.
I've not had much to do with football markets so far but with the liquidity and range of markets I think there may be some opportunities for my bot.
For the manual trading I'm sticking with the dogs and horses.
I'm also going to give the in play horses a go as it sounds fun. Just small stakes.
Also heard a rumour that The Geeks Toy charting isn't too far away
Back to the UK next week for a couple of months, can't wait for the fantastic winter weather...
Have now made all the arrangements to move to Switzerland next June/July, so looking forwards to that.
Saturday, 18 September 2010
Varekai
Last month was a bit frustrating and it ended with a £25 loss, it's just one of those things you have to accept will happen... so be patient, build slowly, don't take unecessary risks, and don't use too big stakes too soon.
This month I've already made £400 using exactly the same strategies and stakes. The bank (which was £250 near the end of June) is now at £1200.
I feel that I've made some big leaps in the last 3 to 4 months, I have confidence in what I'm doing and why. I'm also letting bets ride where I think I can get good value rather than trading. And I have ideas for new areas to look at.
Some strategies are bringing in more than others and I don't know how scalable they all are, but I should be able to increase the stakes a bit yet on most of them, some of them are still only running £2 stakes. A few have a high turnover but only just break even after commission, which I'm guessing isn't necessarily a bad thing as I think they will help reduce my PC charges so probably worth continuing with for that reason.
All in all a great month so far.
Last night we went to see Cirque de Soleil in Zurich which was really good. Tonight we had friends over from England and drunk beer and wine (which was also good).
This month I've already made £400 using exactly the same strategies and stakes. The bank (which was £250 near the end of June) is now at £1200.
I feel that I've made some big leaps in the last 3 to 4 months, I have confidence in what I'm doing and why. I'm also letting bets ride where I think I can get good value rather than trading. And I have ideas for new areas to look at.
Some strategies are bringing in more than others and I don't know how scalable they all are, but I should be able to increase the stakes a bit yet on most of them, some of them are still only running £2 stakes. A few have a high turnover but only just break even after commission, which I'm guessing isn't necessarily a bad thing as I think they will help reduce my PC charges so probably worth continuing with for that reason.
All in all a great month so far.
Last night we went to see Cirque de Soleil in Zurich which was really good. Tonight we had friends over from England and drunk beer and wine (which was also good).
Tuesday, 14 September 2010
GG's
Had a good day on the horses.
Also made a Massive £1.74 on NFL last night!
Looks like this month should be in profit, couple of hundred up at the moment and only half way in.
Still averaging £10+ per day
Also made a Massive £1.74 on NFL last night!
Looks like this month should be in profit, couple of hundred up at the moment and only half way in.
Still averaging £10+ per day
Monday, 13 September 2010
Purple Place
Have got a test bot running on Betdaq now, mainly just to check out a few things for the main bot program I'm working on.
It's actually a lot easier to code than I expected, mainly thanks to there already being a fairly good wrapper class for the API calls in the Sample C# application that you can download. Has saved me a load of work.
A bit disappointed with the liquidity today though.
Other than that not much happening.
I chipped a tooth, but will probably wait until next month before I get it sorted as will be cheaper.
Big bike ride tomorrow, did a 60km ride last week and might go for 80km.
Doesn't sound too bad apart from it is all up and down mountains so will take about 5 hours.
It's actually a lot easier to code than I expected, mainly thanks to there already being a fairly good wrapper class for the API calls in the Sample C# application that you can download. Has saved me a load of work.
A bit disappointed with the liquidity today though.
Other than that not much happening.
I chipped a tooth, but will probably wait until next month before I get it sorted as will be cheaper.
Big bike ride tomorrow, did a 60km ride last week and might go for 80km.
Doesn't sound too bad apart from it is all up and down mountains so will take about 5 hours.
Wednesday, 8 September 2010
Wednesday
Had a boring day of databases and stats today, but it has to be done.
Data from my last 3 months bet history and P&L has enabled me to increase the stakes slightly on a few of the strategies that are now up to over 1000 bets/trades.
While I was doing that my bot decided to try and make up for not doing very much last month and pulled in a decent chunk of cash, mainly from the dogs as usual.
Bank should be over £1000 very soon and then I'll start taking some of the profits out again!
Not sure how far off the PC I am. I was quite lucky with arbing (i.e. losses on BF and wins at the bookies) when I started out and did lots of bookmaker promotions, so that should give me a bit of a buffer. Unfortunately I didn't keep proper records back then and have also changed bank cards on my BF account several times so I can't even use deposits/withdrawals/balance on the card in account summary to work out what my lifetime P&L is.
Guess I'll find out if/when it kicks in...
This weeks book is Shadow of the Wind by Carlos Ruiz Zafon, it was recently recommended to me so hopefully will be good.
That's it for today, got to go out now, it's pizza Time...
Data from my last 3 months bet history and P&L has enabled me to increase the stakes slightly on a few of the strategies that are now up to over 1000 bets/trades.
While I was doing that my bot decided to try and make up for not doing very much last month and pulled in a decent chunk of cash, mainly from the dogs as usual.
Bank should be over £1000 very soon and then I'll start taking some of the profits out again!
Not sure how far off the PC I am. I was quite lucky with arbing (i.e. losses on BF and wins at the bookies) when I started out and did lots of bookmaker promotions, so that should give me a bit of a buffer. Unfortunately I didn't keep proper records back then and have also changed bank cards on my BF account several times so I can't even use deposits/withdrawals/balance on the card in account summary to work out what my lifetime P&L is.
Guess I'll find out if/when it kicks in...
This weeks book is Shadow of the Wind by Carlos Ruiz Zafon, it was recently recommended to me so hopefully will be good.
That's it for today, got to go out now, it's pizza Time...
Tuesday, 7 September 2010
August
Made a £25 loss in August, mainly due to screwing up some manual trades on the dogs. It's amazing how quick the dog markets can turn against you if you are not paying attention.
The bot made a small profit, but nothing like it did in July. Not enough to put the month back in credit.
Possibly something to do with Football reducing liquidity in the horse and dog markets. Anyway, it's not making a loss but it might need a few tweaks if it doesn't pick up in September.
Last week was a bit quiet on the blog as I was making the most of my last week in sunny Spain this summer and I went out mountain biking every day rather than trading or programming.
The bot made a small profit, but nothing like it did in July. Not enough to put the month back in credit.
Possibly something to do with Football reducing liquidity in the horse and dog markets. Anyway, it's not making a loss but it might need a few tweaks if it doesn't pick up in September.
Last week was a bit quiet on the blog as I was making the most of my last week in sunny Spain this summer and I went out mountain biking every day rather than trading or programming.
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