Having looked at yesterday's foolish mistake I draw two main conclusions
1) I was just gambling - hoping that Brazil's price would drift a bit 2) The stakes were way too high - it was an unknown market and I let 3 bets get matched which gave me a liability of £150!!!
Guess I got teached real good...
So no more manual trading of Football (or other unknown) markets with anything other than £2 stakes.
My bank is now a tad over £400 and I'm setting my stakes at £40 liability.
On the plus side it only took about 20 mins and £150 to learn a valuable lesson that I should have already learnt
I still have no idea what possessed me to try and scalp a random football match...
After a successful afternoon with £22 profit I thought I'd try and scalp a few ticks on the football, and I was doing ok, £6 up on the Brazil match, but then they scored twice in the second half after I had a lay bet matched and left me with a £147 red with no way out...
So I have lost £60 yesterday by leaving two lay bets in the pre race horse markets, and today I lost £125 by messing about with football markets that I don't understand...
My only consolation is that I am still up £75 this month so far, but losing £185 in 2 days still hurts pretty bad!!!
Upped my stakes from £30 liability to £50 liability, because my bank is now > £500 and I'm getting more confident about my decisions.
I had a couple of small losses in the middle of the afternoon, but this didn't effect my trading and I made it back in the next few races without making any changes.
I've attached a screen shot of my P&L for today as a reminder to myself that I didn't need to change anything after the loss, the horses was all manual trading and the non horse profits are from the bot which continues to make steady progress.
I already made back 1/3 of the accidental loss from yesterday without doing anything different.
Need to keep focused on the long term, not worry about today's profits or losses.
Have started to look at the price data I've been collecting from horses and dogs pre race markets and already identified a couple of possible opportunities to nick a bit more money out of these markets.
Have also recently signed up for a 3 month trial of football elite. Yeah Yeah I know it's not the football season at the moment, but they have a decent trial offer that includes the world cup and the first month of next season and I've had a couple of people recommend them to me.
I know absolutely nothing about football and have no intention of doing anything other than sledge hammer approach to number crunching for myself on the football markets, but profits are profits and if this service works there's no reason not to sign up and use it, and if it doesn't then no problem, nothing lost except a few quid trying it out.
Might report in a few months how I got on.
Looking forwards to my holidays! I've got no work until October and will be spending the summer in Switzerland and Spain doing a mix of trading, mountain biking and sculling... Is a tough life, but someone has to do it...
Was all going quite well, I lost £20, and made £25 so overall up £5...
Then for some reason I left the PC forgetting that I had two speculative trades waiting about 7 and 10 ticks out of the money...
Between leaving the PC and the race starting it was taken, and with me not being there to close the trade I was left with a £60 liability... Ooops!
On the plus side I'm still £200 up for the month, but it was a loss that shouldn't have happened!
Usually before I switch markets or leave the PC I click on the hedge (even at 0) as this cancels all non matched bets, but for whatever reason this time I forgot.
Still not finding much time to trade, but I have a whole afternoon tomorrow!
Then I'm away in Henley-On-Thames for the rest of the week before heading out to Switzerland on Monday evening.
Then next week I'll finally have time to analyse the price data that I've been collecting for the last few months and also do some trading most afternoons.
Should be able to do more regular blog updates over the summer.
Another good day today, and more than made up for yesterdays small red.
Will be working all afternoon and evenings for the next 4 days and am away on Sunday so no more manual trading until next Monday.
One of the things I'm finding it easier to do (and it is helping my trading) is to not have any expectations of the markets.
I know some people study form and look for value, and I'm not saying you shouldn't do that if it works, I'm just saying that I don't do that in the pre race horse and dog markets for my style of trading.
I have no knowledge of the runners and I simply try to trade what I think I see happening with the numbers using an edge.
Having expectations can sometimes alter what you see.
Had my worst day for ages, but despite bad hit rate and losses I'm actually pleased with how it went and how I handled it.
Is a good reminder after recent successful week not to take things for granted, and it also put my discipline to the test.
The most encouraging thing about taking lots of reds was that I wasn't tempted to try and get any of it back or change tactics...
I did eventually decide enough was enough and stopped trading, but overall my entry points were right and I took most of the losses quickly. Half the total loss came from the first trade of a day when I tried to get on a reversal in the dogs that instead of reversing instantly jumped down 20 ticks and then kept going...
A good day for experience and the total loss was only what I made yesterday, so it didn't dent my bank, which in the past the same situations could so easily have done had I let things go in play or chased loses.
Haven't made a blog entry for a few days, but am continuing to make good progress and have added a bit more to the bank this week.
Made a few minor mistakes, but nothing too drastic and I was able to scratch quite quick for minimal losses when it went against me, but on one trade I didn't close out before the off and it had a £90 liability going in play, fortunately my closing trade was only 2 ticks of the LTP and got matched quickly to leave me with a small green a few seconds into the race.
Would have been annoying to chase that in play, so I need to keep the volume turned up so that I always hear the timer sounds and get closed in time.
No recent temptation to enter markets early and I'm sticking to my edges and just watching the markets when I'm waiting for opportunities to show up.
Quite often I get my money in and just miss getting taken before a move, but that is better than jumping the queue and then not being able to get out when the move doesn't happen and goes the wrong way. Also builds confidence about reading the markets even if it's not building the bank...
Am heading out to Switzerland in two weeks and will be hitting the ski slopes again, but this time with the mountain bike!
