Time for a KitKat

Have got too many distractions at the moment and the tennis finishes this month anyway.

I've been consistently making steady profits on the horses and dogs and then throwing them away with stupid screw ups.

I'm not making any progress at the moment, I have learnt loads but I'm not yet applying what I have learnt consistently enough. I can't keep wasting so much of my time to earn +/- £5 a week.

What I need is a reasonably long break from trading and then to come back completely fresh for a new start. Four weeks will be enough.

I may post some ski pictures before January and/or other random stuff, and I will carry on with data analysis looking for statistical trades, but no more manual trading until after Christmas.

Here's this months P&L graph (just to give you a laugh)



If it wasn't for the two internet crashes on the 18th/19th I'd still be in profit, but only by about £10 so even then it's not exactly much return for 4 weeks!

Today's trading was just a complete joke, and my mind was elsewhere on other things that I need to get sorted out...

Back soon!

Girl From Mars

Collected a new boat today and had a fun filled drive through torrential rain round the M25 and up the A1.

Heard a song that I haven't heard for ages on the radio on the way back so that's why you have Girl From Mars on the video.

Maybe a trading related posts tomorrow...

Then There Were Three

Have now got 3 systems programmed into the bot, although one of them requires a larger bank so that won't be activated unless the other two build up some profits first...

Also transferred the last 4 years Dog data into my database today and will be running some analysis on that this week.

Lots of work over the weekend, which makes up for some of the cancellations due to bad weather earlier in the week.

Not sure how much trading I'll get done this week as I have lots to do, but should be able to do some tennis and a couple of dog races.

And that's about it... Nothing much else has happened this weekend...

Virgin Suck!

Two days in a row I lose connection with a trade open 20 secs before the off!!!



I can now look forwards to spending the first half of next week getting back the £80+ those two crashes (and a couple of other mistakes) have cost me in the last two days.

Virgin Media are not my favourite ISP at the moment even without that, the network is about as reliable as a chocolate teapot these days.

I can usually get it going faster again by changing my mac address and resetting the cable modem, but that doesn't help if the connection shuts down completely.

I'm glad I'm going back to Switzerland in a few weeks!

I did think I was still in profit for the month but it turns out my maths is worse than my internet connection and I've gone back into the red.

Not really what I was hoping for when I got up this morning...

At least there is some Tennis to look forwards to next week

Betfair Bot Mk I

Finished writing my first Betfair Bot today

Have now automated some of my Tennis trades (only there are no tennis markets at the moment but it's ready for next week) but was able to test on other markets.



Just hacked together at the moment but I've figured out the API.

Next step is to write it properly with classes and interfaces and stuff, might even put error handling in.  Then I'll be looking at linking it up to a database for real time data collection. Not sure if the free API will be able to do enough requests, but it will be ok to start with.

Trading went well today apart from losing £25 when the internet crashed 30 secs before the off, I would have been £10 up today without that loss, but is just one of them things I have no control over and not a big deal.

Working until Monday unless the weather is bad, so not sure how much I'll get done over the weekend.

Here's a video:



I've also added a link to the Betfair Developer site



There is a forum with VB and C# samples, plus on the main page links to many developer tools and information such as an API reference guide, API product comparisons etc.

I'm using:

VB Express 2010 (it's free)
MS SQL Server Express (it's free)
Betfair Personal API (it's free)

You've probably spotted a recurring theme...

If I was going to create applications for anyone else I'd probably take the time to learn C# Express (also free), but VB is quick and easy and does everything I need including hook up to SQL Server easily.

Power Cuts and Internet Crashes

Didn't get too much trading done today as the electricity shut down this morning for about 5 hours, then it came back for a bit then the internet crashed...

Luckily I'd no big liabilities either time.

I'd layed a dog at 1.04 this morning (because I saw £450 at 1.03) and it got matched (me and the £450) which was quite useful, the plan was to green up a few minutes before the off, but that didn't happen, luckily my 60p wasn't needed as it lost the race and I pulled in £15



Did a few races this evening but nothing major just an extra few quid to the P&L.

A fairly easy day, finished a book I've been reading and did a bit more on my bot program.

Fun

Quite a fun day trading the dogs.

A few wins, a few losses, missed a couple of obvious moves, got on a couple of others just in time for them to reverse... lol

Was quite enjoyable, despite losing about £5 over the day I never had any really bad trades, there were the usuall sudden reversals, but they are getting more predictable and I closed out smiling rather than sitting in the headlights cursing when it went red.

Internet connection has been kerrap for the last few hours so I haven't been able to do much in the evening markets.

According to some forum posts there is someone spoofing on the favourites with big money in the pre race horses these days. Haven't seen it myself as I've been mostly in the dog markets. Might take a look tomorrow.

[Update:]
Pulled a few quid back to finish -59p from 65 markets...
 

Not so bad after all

Decided to do a few more greyhounds while I was answering emails and watching tv

Having made only 3p per race all day I had to go and mess up my average by making £14.91 in the last 3 races of the day



Not such a bad day after all...

Time to have a few beers and listen to Nightwish

Thrupence

3 pence

That's what I made on average per market today...



£1 from 33 markets...



Good job this isn't my main source of income at the moment...

No tennis this week, so did a couple of horse races as well as the dogs.

On the plus side I only had two bad races in the middle where I lost £12 and £6 (didn't go in play, just traded badly and closed on a big red), the rest of the day before and after the losses was quite good.

Back in Green

Screwed up the horses at the start of the month by letting a trade go in play, but after a steady week I am now back in Green.

Apart from that one mistake (well two mistakes, the next day wasn't great either) my trading has been a lot more in control and confident this month and I feel that I am starting to make some progress again.



I have three more weeks left on my current contract and then I'm off to Switzerland for 3 weeks skiing, then out to Spain for a week for the New Year before ny next contract starts the second week of January.

Will finally get to use my new skis!

Couldn't find a back in Green video so this will have to do instead...

Dirty Data

Sorry for the lack of blog posts in the last few days, but I've been spending all my spare time cleaning up and checking the Betfair historical data.

The last 12 months data is ok, but prior to that they just used comma delimiters without quoting the fields, which meant that and data with commas in (e.g. names like "Hansen, S" or "Days 1,2 and 3" would be read as two fields instead of one...

They also started off using ODOA as end of line and then switched to just OA, which can also screw up the SQL import function.

Anyway, to cut a long story short I've converted all the old csv files to the same format as the current ones (not difficult but there are hundreds of files and they are BIG so it all takes time) and now have 4 years of data to analyse instead of just one...

Now I've finished that I can get back to writing my API data capture bot.

I have done a couple of trades this week and I'll bung up a graph at some point to show how I screwed up at the start of the month and then pulled it back again (assuming I don't screw up again before I get round to doing that...)

One step closer to the zone

After a slightly dodgy start to the month I'm now back in on track, with what was not my most profitable day, but was probably my most confident and consistent day yet

I pulled in £27 from Tennis, Dogs and Horses, with a £100 bank and £10 stakes.

Mostly things went my way, but the best thing about today was that I never once felt stressed even when trades did try to go against me I just closed out quickly if I needed to, reassessed and recovered.

Didn't get much time for API coding but figured I was better getting some trading hours in as it was going well.  I have come up with a few ideas for a data collection bot and some automated trading that I should be able to set up in December when I have a few weeks off work.

API

Had time to take a look at the Betfair API today

It is surprisingly easy to use, there's a VB tutorial and a C# sample application on the Betfair developer forum. So have installed VB 2010 Express and C# 2010 Express both free and logged into the API also free and so far I've figured out how to get the events, market, selections and prices etc.

Glad I didn't waste too much time looking at using excel, this is going to be much easier/better for automating some of my tennis trades.

As for the trading I made a small green on the horses and the dogs today. I'm really liking the six ladder layout for trading the dogs, also realised today that I can quickly sort the ladders on traded volume once the money starts coming in so that the more liquid dogs are on the left of the screen. Combined with the LTP charts built in to the ladder and the BF charts underneath for price/volume history it makes the dogs a lot easier. They still bite sometimes, but then so can horses.

I also saw a 1.03 lay bet get matched for £594! (doh)



I know the lay money is always down there, but not seen it get taken before, I guess my current screen layout lets me spot it easier if it does happen.

Sunday Bloody Sunday

 
Nothing much happening on the trading front today as I've got meetings all morning, and then I'm working this afternoon.

Might get time for some Tennis later this evening.

Busy

 
A busy day, but busy with work, not busy with trading.

I managed to fit in a couple of hours, some tennis matches and horse races between work, as usual I made a number of small wins and then in less than 5 mins I made a couple of stoopid mistakes that took away most of the profits... lol

I think I am now at the point where I'm understanding what it is I'm doing wrong, but not quite yet at the point where I have stopped doing it...

But progress is progress...

It's a bit like when I was a little kid with a screw driver and a plug socket.  I know it hurt last time... but I still have to do it again... and again... and again...

Scoreboards

It's amazing how slow tennis scoreboards are, if you want to trade tennis seriously I'd suggest you get live pictures. (i'm sure I mentioned this before)

I spent the morning planting juniper bushes, we make Sloe Gin every year and have decided that it's worth getting bushes in the garden rather than having to trek out into the countryside to find them. Bargain price of 10 bushes for £12.50. Shame I didn't think to dig out the bed where they are going before they were delivered...

My phone that went swimming is still completely dead after it's dried out, so have binned that, I preferred the old one anyway.

Made a few trading videos of dogs, horses and tennis today which I've also put in the video section on The Geek's forum. The tennis one is quite short (one game) and is just to show the massive delay between the pictures and the scoreboards. But I did do one trade for 35p (woohoo) while I was making the video as it was pretty obvious the price was going to come in when the player in black (forgot his name) won the game on his next serve, and if he didn't I'd have scratched before the scoreboards updated anyway as they were a whole point behind...

Be careful though as not all tennis live pictures are equally live, some are just as bad (or worse) than the scoreboards.





The videos are (11Mb and 48Mb) Suggest you right click and save them to your PC before playing.

Not a bad day

 
After a doubtful start when I dropped my phone in the river, things got a lot better...

I went back with a rake and retrieved the phone and I put my sim card into my old phone, and (unlike previous times I've lost/broken a phone) I was able to download all my numbers from the PC so it's like it never happened except that I have my old phone again.  The new phone that went swimming is now drying out on the boiler in the hope that it might work again next week...

I then rang the tax office to find out why I'd still heard nothing about my appeal only to be told that they had finally decided to repay me and had transferred a large wad of cash into my bank this morning

I also received two cheques that I'd been waiting for.

Then I made a few (rather insignificant but still welcome) quids on the horses and the dogs.

Then I had a few beers

All things considered, Not a bad day...

November

 
I'm not setting any financial targets for November but I obviously want to end up in profit rather than a loss.

It's funny looking back how 6 months ago when I started I thought I'd have it all figured out by now...  What I have figured out is that the more I learn the more I realise how much I don't know.  There is every possibility that I am going to make good money from this eventually, but there are also hundreds of ways that I can (and sometimes do) screw up and I'm still on the steep bit of the learning curve so I need to be patient and take things one step at a time unless I want to start throwing my bank away.  I've been lucky a few times, and it was really only luck that I didn't end up £100 red last month. Half way through the first week I was having good profits and looking forwards to making £500+, by half way through the last week I was expecting to end up the month well into the red.

The only targets I'm setting myself for November are to learn something (even if it's something I thought I already learnt before) from every session and to enjoy the trading regardless of if it goes green or red.

Any time I'm not enjoying the trading or making mistakes I will just switch off the PC and come back later.

I don't have time to trade regularly now until December, so some days I'll do a lot other days I'll do none at all.

The trading will be Tennis and Pre Race Horses depending when I'm able to trade and what events are on (I might even try greyhounds occasionally).

Hopefully not too many fireworks!

October

 

Tennis weekly P&L	-1.45	Monthly P&L	-24.36
Horses weekly P&L	-16.86	Monthly P&L	34.28
Total			9.92

Not the greatest month ever, but it ended with a small green which is better than red...

Tennis took a hit a couple of weeks back when everyone forgot how to play and/or retired injured, and I blew my horse profits by trying to trade when I had visitors distracting me.

Have dropped my tennis stakes down for my main trade as that made a loss, luckily I had some other tennis trades that pulled back a lot of that and one good day left me £24 red instead of £130 red. Without that I'd have had a losing month so it was definitely worth burning incense and sacrificing those goats!

I feel more confident with the horses, and every time I say that I start losing again... so lets see if I can start to increase my stakes and profits successfully this time!

It's difficult to trade as regularly as I'd like at the moment as I work mornings and evenings, and all day at weekends, but working brings in more than trading at the moment, so it has to come first. Plus I enjoy my work and despite the early mornings I would do it for free if I didn't need the money. If I ever get good enough at this trading lark I will do that.